- 09
- 11月
家用蓄电池系统
过去,由于储能行业规模较小,且尚未进入全面经济时间点,各家公司的储能业务占比较低,业务量较小。 近年来,随着产业成本的降低和需求的推动,储能业务取得快速发展。
广义的储能包括电能存储、热能存储和氢能存储三种类型,其中电能存储是主要的一种。 电能存储分为电化学储能和机械储能。 电化学储能是目前应用最广泛、发展潜力最大的储能技术。 具有受地理条件影响小、工期短、经济等优点。 优势。
In terms of structural types, electrochemical energy storage mainly includes lithium-ion batteries, lead storage batteries, and sodium-sulfur batteries.
锂离子储能电池具有寿命长、能量密度高、环境适应性强等特点。 随着商业化路线的成熟和成本的不断降低,锂离子电池正逐渐取代性能优越的低成本铅蓄电池。 在2000-2019年累计电化学储能装机容量中,锂离子电池占比87%,成为主流技术路线。
锂离子电池按应用领域可分为消耗电池、动力电池和储能电池。
The mainstream battery types of energy storage batteries include lithium iron phosphate batteries and ternary lithium batteries. With the solution of the energy density problem of lithium iron phosphate batteries, the proportion of lithium iron phosphate batteries has increased year by year.
磷酸铁锂电池正极材料热稳定性强,结构稳定性高。 其安全性和循环寿命均优于三元锂电池,且不含贵金属。 具有综合成本优势,更符合储能系统的要求。
我国电化学储能目前主要以锂电池为主,发展较为成熟。 其累计装机容量占我国化学储能市场总装机容量的一半以上。
根据GGII数据,2020年中国储能电池市场出货量为16.2GWh,同比增长71%,其中电储能6.6GWh,占比41%,通信储能7.4GWh ,占 46%。 其他包括城市轨道交通。 用于交通、工业等领域储能的锂电池。
GGII predicts that China’s energy storage battery shipments will reach 68GWh by 2025, and the CAGR will exceed 30% from 2020 to 2025.
储能电池注重电池容量、稳定性和寿命,综合考虑电池模块一致性、电池材料膨胀率和能量密度、电极材料性能均匀性等要求,实现更长的寿命和更低的成本,以及储能的循环次数电池寿命一般要求大于3500次。
From the perspective of application scenarios, energy storage batteries are mainly used for peak and frequency modulation power auxiliary services, grid connection of renewable energy, microgrid and other fields.
The 5G base station is the core basic equipment of the 5G network. Generally, macro base stations and micro base stations are used together. Since the energy consumption is several times that of the 4G period, a higher energy density lithium energy storage system is required. Among them, energy storage batteries can be used in the macro base station. Acting as an emergency power supply for base stations and undertaking the role of peak-shaving and valley-filling, power upgrades and lead-to-lithium replacement are the general trend.
For business models such as thermal power distribution and shared energy storage, system optimization and control strategies are also important factors that cause economic differences between projects. Energy storage is a cross-discipline, and overall solution vendors that understand energy storage, power grids, and transactions are expected to stand out in the subsequent competition.
储能电池市场格局
储能系统市场的参与者主要有两类:电池制造商和PCS(储能转换器)制造商。
布局储能电池的电池厂商以LG化学、宁德时代、比亚迪、派能科技等为代表,依托电芯制造基地向下游拓展。
The battery business of CATL and other manufacturers is still dominated by power batteries, and they are more familiar with the electrochemical system. Currently, they mainly provide energy storage batteries and modules, which are in the upper reaches of the industrial chain; Paineng Technology focuses on the energy storage market and has a longer industrial chain , Able to provide customers with integrated solutions for energy storage systems that match the products.
从市场发展来看,在国内市场,宁德时代和比亚迪均处于领先地位; 在海外市场,比亚迪2020年储能产品出货量位居国内企业前列。
以阳光电源为代表的PCS厂商,拥有逆变器行业数十年成熟标准积累的国际化渠道,携手三星等电芯厂商向上游拓展。
Energy storage batteries and power battery production lines have the same technology. Therefore, the current power battery leaders can rely on their technology and scale advantages in the lithium battery field to enter the energy storage field and expand their business layout.
Looking at the corporate competition pattern of the global energy storage industry, because Tesla, LG Chem, Samsung SDI and other manufacturers started early in the overseas energy storage market, and the current market demand in the energy storage field mostly comes from foreign countries, domestic energy storage The demand is relatively small. In recent years, the demand for energy storage has been expanded with the explosion of the electric vehicle market.
Domestic companies currently deploying energy storage batteries also include Yiwei Lithium Energy, Guoxuan Hi-Tech, and Penghui Energy.
头部制造商在产品安全和认证方面处于领先水平。 例如,宁德时代家用储能解决方案通过了IEC62619和UL 1973等五项测试,比亚迪BYDCube T28通过了德国莱茵TVUL9540A热失控测试。 这是储能行业标准化后的行业。 集中度有望进一步提高。
从国内储能市场的发展来看,从国内储能市场的发展来看,未来五年国内新的千亿元规模的储能市场以及这些企业的优质产品。动力电池领域的宁德时代和亿维锂能,能够弥补国内企业的不足。 中国品牌渠道劣势,国内企业在分享行业增速的同时,其在全球市场的市场份额也有望大幅提升。
储能电池产业链分析
在储能系统的组成中,电池是储能系统中最重要的部分。 据BNEF统计,电池成本占储能系统的50%以上。
储能电池系统成本由电池、结构件、BMS、机柜、辅助材料、制造成本等综合成本构成。 电池约占成本的80%,而Pack的成本(包括结构件、BMS、机柜、辅助材料、制造成本等)约占整个电池包成本的20%。
电池和BMS作为技术复杂度较高的子行业,技术壁垒较高。 核心障碍是电池成本控制、安全性、SOC(State of Charge)管理和平衡控制。
储能电池系统的生产过程分为两个部分。 在电池模组生产环节,将检验合格的电芯通过极耳切割、电芯插入、极耳成型、激光焊接、模组封装等工序组装成电池模组; 在系统组装环节,他们通过检验将电池模组和BMS电路板组装成成品系统,经过初级检验、高温老化、二次检验后进入成品包装环节。
Energy storage battery industry chain:
Source: Ningde Times Prospectus
储能的价值不仅在于项目本身的经济性,还来自于系统优化带来的收益。 根据《关于加快发展新能源储能的指导意见(征求意见稿)》,储能独立市场主体地位有望得到确认。 在储能项目本身的经济性接近投资门槛后,储能系统的控制和报价策略会显着影响配套服务的收入。
The current electrochemical energy storage system is still in the early stage of development, the product and construction standards are not yet complete, and the storage assessment policy has yet to be launched.
随着成本的不断下降和商业应用的日益成熟,电化学储能技术的优势更加明显,逐渐成为新型储能装置的主流。 未来,随着锂电池产业规模效应进一步显现,成本下降空间依然较大,发展前景广阔。