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Analysis of Lithium Battery Sales Market Layout

The latest data released by the China Automobile Industry Innovation Alliance shows that the total domestic power battery load in 2020 is 63.6GWh, an increase of 2.3% year-on-year. Among them, the ternary battery load is 38.9GWh, accounting for 61.1% of the total load, and a cumulative decrease of 4.1% year-on-year; installed capacity The volume was 24.4GWh, accounting for 38.3% of the total installed capacity, a cumulative increase of 20.6% year-on-year. The recovery momentum of lithium iron phosphate is obvious.

From the perspective of market competition, CATL has a 50% market share in the domestic market, BYD has 14.9%, and AVIC Lithium and Guoxuan Hi-Tech account for more than 5%. CATL has ranked first in the global market for four consecutive years, accounting for approximately 24.8% of the market share. South Korea’s LG Chem accounted for 22.6% of the market; Panasonic accounted for 18.3%; BYD, Samsung SDI and SKI accounted for 7.3%, 5.9% and 5.1%, respectively.

The latest installed capacity ranking in 2021. CATL>LG Chem>Panasonic>Byd>Samsung SDI>SKI

(2) Production capacity

From 2020 to 2022, Ningde’s non-joint venture capacity will be 90/150/210GWh, and it will reach 450GWh when the expansion plan is completed in 2025. LG Chem’s current production capacity is 120GWh and will be expanded to 260GWh by the end of 2023. SKI’s current production capacity is 29.7GWh, and it plans to reach 85GWh in 2023 and exceed 125GWh in 2025. Byd’s battery production capacity will reach 65GWh by the end of 2020, and the total production capacity including “blade batteries” will reach 75GWh and 100GWh in 2021 and 2022, respectively.

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Current production capacity. LG Chem > CATL > Bide > SKI

Planned production capacity. CATL>LG Chem>Byd>SKI

(3) Supply distribution

Panasonic Corporation of Japan is Tesla’s main supplier in foreign markets, and later introduced CATL and LG Chem. There are domestic power battery suppliers that create new forces. NiO car batteries are separately provided by Ningde Times, Ideal Auto is provided by Ningde Times and BYD, Xiaopeng Motors is provided by Ningde Times, Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc., and Weimar Motors and Hezhong New Energy battery suppliers are relatively scattered.

The latest news about A shares.

Ningde Times: Since February 2020, nearly 100 billion new power battery investments have been added, and 300GWh of new production capacity has been added. In 2025, the global power battery will enter the TWh era, and the CATL, as the global leader in power batteries, is expected to rank first in terms of installed capacity and production capacity.

On January 19, CATL announced two patents for solid-state batteries. “A preparation method of solid electrolyte”, disperse the lithium precursor and the central atom ligand in an organic solvent to form the initial reaction mixture; disperse the borate in the organic solvent to form a modified solution. The initial reaction mixture is mixed with the modification solution, and the initial product is obtained after drying. The solid electrolyte is obtained from the initial product after grinding, cold pressing, and heat treatment. The patented preparation method can significantly improve the conductivity of the solid electrolyte, which is beneficial to increase the energy density of all solid-state batteries. “A sulfide solid electrolyte sheet and its preparation method”, the sulfide electrolyte material is combined with the boron element doped in the sulfide electrolyte material, and the relative deviation (B0. b100)/B0 is arbitrary on the surface of the electrolyte sheet The relative deviation between the boron mass concentration B0 of the position and the boron mass concentration B100 100 μm away from the position is less than 20%, which can effectively reduce the binding effect of anions on lithium ions and improve the transmission capacity of lithium ions. At the same time, the doping uniformity and conductivity are improved, the interface impedance is reduced, and the cycle performance of the battery is improved.

Byd: Recently, the State Intellectual Property Office published a number of patents in the field of Byd batteries, including “a cathode material and its preparation method, and a solid-state lithium battery”. This patent provides cathode materials and solid-state lithium battery preparation methods. The positive electrode material can construct a lithium ion transmission channel and electron transmission at the same time, which greatly improves the capacity, first lap coulombic efficiency, cycle performance, and high-rate performance of the solid-state lithium battery. A solid electrolyte and its preparation method and solid lithium battery” aim to solve the problems of low energy density and poor safety of existing solid electrolyte lithium batteries. “A gel and its preparation method” shows that BYD is in the field of semi-solid batteries Progress has been made.

Guoxuan Hi-Tech: Lithium iron phosphate 210Wh/kg soft-pack monomer battery and JTM battery Lithium iron phosphate 210Wh/kg soft-pack monomer battery are the products with the highest energy density in the lithium iron phosphate system in the world, independently developed high-performance iron phosphate With lithium materials, high-gram-weight silicon anode materials and advanced pre-lithium technology, the energy density of the monomer has reached the level of the ternary NCM5 system. In JTM, J is the coil core and M is the module. The battery materials of this product are greatly simplified, the manufacturing process is greatly simplified, the battery performance is greatly improved, the overall cost is greatly reduced, and the adaptability of the battery pack is greatly enhanced.

The MEB project jointly developed with Volkswagen refers to the standard MEB module design of the terpolymer and iron-lithium chemical system, and it is expected to achieve mass production and supply in 2023.

Xinwangda: Received a letter from Renault-Nissan alliance suppliers in April 2019 to provide 1.157 million sets of automotive hybrid batteries in the next 7 years. It is conservatively estimated that the order amount will exceed 10 billion yuan. In June 2020, Nissan announced that it will cooperate with Xinwangda to develop next-generation in-vehicle batteries for electronic power systems.

Eve Lithium. On January 19, Efe Lithium announced the launch of the Jingmen cylindrical battery product line, increasing the annual production capacity of 18650 lithium batteries from 2.5GWh to 5GWh, with an annual output of 430 million. This series will be used for electric bicycles.

Feineng Technology. Feineng Technology is a leading enterprise in China’s ternary soft pack power battery. It has established a joint venture with Geely, with a total future capacity of 120GWh, of which construction will begin in 2021