Smart electric vehicles are developing in an unyielding manner. As the core power source of electric vehicles, one after another is also ushered in under such a general trend. 2020 is a year when electric vehicles will be transformed from policy-driven to market-driven, and the power battery industry is also in the process of transformation.

30년에는 전력 배터리 수요가 2021% 증가할 것으로 예상됩니다.

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2020, China’s cumulative power battery load will reach 63.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Among them, CATL was the first installation, with a market share of up to 50%, accounting for half of the country. BYD (01211) ranked second with a market share of 14.9%. Judging from the data of installed capacity in 2020, the development of the power battery industry shows the potential for vigorous development. The information of the entire power battery industry chain is out of stock, price increases, and capacity expansion. By 2020, the number of power battery installations will continue to increase, so how will the demand change in 2021? The industry unanimously predicts that the number of power battery installations in 2021 will increase by 30% year-on-year. Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Sub-fund, believes that China’s new energy vehicle sales in 2021 are expected to be around 1.8 million, and the installation of power batteries will increase by more than 30% year-on-year.

2021년 리튬 수요의 모든 성장은 전력 배터리 시장에서 올 것이며 성장의 거의 2020분의 92.2은 전기 자동차 시장에서 발생할 것으로 추정됩니다. 각종 전기차의 충전용량을 2021년 수준으로 계산하면 전기차의 리튬 수요는 50.1년 2020GWh에 달하고 전체 수요에서 차지하는 비중은 55.7년 2021%에서 XNUMX%로 늘어날 전망이다. Ningde Times의 Zeng Yuqun 회장은 XNUMX년부터 전 세계 리튬 배터리 시장 수요가 크게 증가할 것으로 예상하지만 현재 전체 산업 체인의 용량 공급이 상대적으로 느리고 효과적인 공급이 충분하지 않습니다. 전력 배터리 수요가 폭발적으로 증가함에 따라 전체 공급망의 용량 공급이 어려움에 직면할 것입니다. 이러한 수요 전망에 따라 주요 전력 배터리 업체들도 생산 능력 구축에 박차를 가하고 있다. 또한, 점점 더 많은 전력 배터리 회사와 자동차 회사가 상류 원자재의 안정적인 공급의 중요성을 깨닫고 다각화된 레이아웃을 수행하고 있습니다.

cutting-edge power battery technology products accelerate landing

In terms of technology, 2021 will be another prosperous year. Since BYD launched blade batteries in 2020, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been hot. In terms of safety, cost, performance, etc., lithium iron phosphate batteries have won the favor of enterprises. Data show that lithium iron phosphate batteries have grown significantly in the field of pure electric passenger vehicles, from 2.59GWh in 2019 to 7.38GWh in 2020. But overall, the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries only increased by 1.08 GWh compared with 2019, mainly due to the decline in pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles in the two main markets of lithium iron phosphate, which offset the passenger car market. increase. Since 2020, hot-selling models such as Tesla Model 3, BYD Han, and Wuling Hongguang MiniEV are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, further boosting market confidence in lithium iron phosphate batteries. In 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the pure electric passenger car market will reach 20GWh, and the installed capacity will also increase to 28.9%.

Fang Zhouzi believes that some new power battery technologies will appear in 2021. Early power batteries sacrificed other aspects of performance while pursuing energy density. Today, new technologies in the field of power batteries will continue to emerge and land. Gu Niu announced on January 8 that due to “high-capacity silicon anode materials and advanced pre-lithium technology”, 210Wh/kg lithium iron phosphate batteries have achieved such a high energy density. On January 9, NIO released a 150kWh solid-state battery pack with a single energy density of 360Wh/kg, and announced that it will be installed in cars in the fourth quarter of 2022, indicating that the commercialization of solid-state battery technology is further accelerating.

On January 13, the automotive think tank released its first new car, carrying the cutting-edge battery technology jointly developed with CATL, and for the first time announced the adoption of “doped lithium silicon filling technology, single-cell battery energy density 300 wh/kg”. On January 18, Guangzhou Automobile Group revealed that models equipped with silicon anode batteries have entered the actual vehicle test stage as planned and will be launched this year. Fang Jianhua said that in 2021, there will be some new technology introductions and even breakthroughs in the fields of power battery materials, high nickel anodes, silicon carbon anode materials, new composite fluid collection materials and conductive materials. These technologies will play a key role in improving the performance of power batteries.

Strong market expectations have also inspired power battery companies to accelerate their expansion, especially the leading power battery companies continue to compete to increase their market share in the future. On February 2, Ningde Times announced plans to build three production bases in Zhaoqing, Guangdong, Yibin, Sichuan, and Ningde, Fujian. It is expected to increase the production capacity of 79GWh, with a total investment of up to 29 billion yuan. On December 31, 2020, Ningde Times just announced a 39 billion yuan expansion plan. On February 3, Yiwei Lithium Energy also announced that Sun’s Yiwei Power Hong Kong plans to invest US$128 million to establish Yiwei Power in Huizhou to expand the production scale of power batteries. 2021 is destined to be the year of capacity expansion for major power battery companies. According to sources, the Ningde Times Cheri Bay project is progressing in an orderly manner, and the first and second plants are expected to be put into use in October this year. China Aviation Building Lithium A6 project is also stepping up equipment installation and commissioning, and will usher in formal production. As early as November 2020, Honeycomb Energy announced the construction of a 24GWh factory in Europe, with a total investment of 15.5 billion yuan.

그러나 한편에는 미친 확장이 있고 다른 한편에는 용량 활용도 문제가 있습니다. 닝더 시대를 예로 들어보자. 회사 연차보고서에 따르면 2019년 설비 가동률은 89.17%였다. 2020년 상반기 가동률은 52.50%에 불과했다. 이에 업계 관계자인 왕민은 “시장의 긍정적인 판단을 바탕으로 주요 배터리 업체들이 생산 확대에 속도를 내고 있지만 전력 배터리 용량 활용 문제도 주의가 필요하다”고 말했다. 선도 기업의 가동률이 충분하지 않으면 중소기업의 상황은 더욱 심각해질 것입니다. 전원 배터리의 용량 구조가 과도하고 용량 활용률이 충분하지 않습니다. 전원 배터리의 공급이 빡빡하고 과잉 공급이 있습니다. 그 중 고급 및 고품질 생산 능력이 부족하고 저가 제품의 생산 능력이 부족합니다. 공급 측면에서 고급 제품은 많은 배터리 전원을 필요로 합니다. 따라서 이것은 좋은 설명입니다. 헤드 배터리 업체들은 고급 생산 능력 공급을 늘리기 위해 증설에 속도를 내고 있다.

2021년, 전력 배터리 산업은 둔화되지 않을 것입니다. 11월 2021일, Qianjiang Automobile은 Qianjiang 리튬 배터리가 자본금 미지급으로 온라인 전환을 신청했으며 다른 전력 배터리 회사가 제거되었다고 발표했습니다. 이에 앞서 Watma, Hubei Lions 등 많은 기업들이 부실을 이유로 온라인 개통을 신청한 바 있다. 전력 배터리 산업의 경우 73년은 계속해서 좋은 해가 될 것이지만 모든 기업에 유익한 것은 아닙니다. 과거 데이터에 따르면 2020년에 세포 생산을 지원할 79개 회사가 있습니다. 2019년 110개사, 2018년 2021개사. XNUMX년까지 전원 배터리의 시장 집중도가 여전히 개선되고 있으며 업계 재편이 계속될 것이라는 데는 의심의 여지가 없습니다.