Smart electric vehicles are developing in an unyielding manner. As the core power source of electric vehicles, one after another is also ushered in under such a general trend. 2020 is a year when electric vehicles will be transformed from policy-driven to market-driven, and the power battery industry is also in the process of transformation.

The demand for power batteries is expected to increase by 30% in 2021

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in 2020, China’s cumulative power battery load will reach 63.6GWh, a year-on-year increase of 2.3%. Among them, CATL was the first installation, with a market share of up to 50%, accounting for half of the country. BYD (01211) ranked second with a market share of 14.9%. Judging from the data of installed capacity in 2020, the development of the power battery industry shows the potential for vigorous development. The information of the entire power battery industry chain is out of stock, price increases, and capacity expansion. By 2020, the number of power battery installations will continue to increase, so how will the demand change in 2021? The industry unanimously predicts that the number of power battery installations in 2021 will increase by 30% year-on-year. Fang Jianhua, partner and president of the National Science and Technology Achievement Transformation Fund New Energy Vehicle Venture Capital Sub-fund, believes that China’s new energy vehicle sales in 2021 are expected to be around 1.8 million, and the installation of power batteries will increase by more than 30% year-on-year.

It is estimated that all the growth in lithium demand in 2021 will come from the power battery market, and nearly three-quarters of the growth will come from the electric vehicle market. If the charging capacity of various electric vehicles is calculated according to the 2020 level, the demand for lithium in electric vehicles is expected to reach 92.2GWh in 2021, and its proportion in the total demand will rise from 50.1% in 2020 to 55.7%. Zeng Yuqun, chairman of the Ningde Times, believes that from 2021, the global lithium battery market demand will increase significantly, but the current capacity supply of the entire industry chain is relatively slow and effective supply is insufficient. With the explosive growth of power battery demand, the capacity supply of the entire supply chain will face challenges. Under such demand forecasts, major power battery companies are also stepping up production capacity construction. In addition, more and more power battery companies and automobile companies realize the importance of a stable supply of upstream raw materials and carry out diversified layouts.

cutting-edge power battery technology products accelerate landing

In terms of technology, 2021 will be another prosperous year. Since BYD launched blade batteries in 2020, lithium iron phosphate batteries have been hot. In terms of safety, cost, performance, etc., lithium iron phosphate batteries have won the favor of enterprises. Data show that lithium iron phosphate batteries have grown significantly in the field of pure electric passenger vehicles, from 2.59GWh in 2019 to 7.38GWh in 2020. But overall, the total installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries only increased by 1.08 GWh compared with 2019, mainly due to the decline in pure electric buses and pure electric special vehicles in the two main markets of lithium iron phosphate, which offset the passenger car market. increase. Since 2020, hot-selling models such as Tesla Model 3, BYD Han, and Wuling Hongguang MiniEV are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, further boosting market confidence in lithium iron phosphate batteries. In 2021, the installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the pure electric passenger car market will reach 20GWh, and the installed capacity will also increase to 28.9%.

Fang Zhouzi believes that some new power battery technologies will appear in 2021. Early power batteries sacrificed other aspects of performance while pursuing energy density. Today, new technologies in the field of power batteries will continue to emerge and land. Gu Niu announced on January 8 that due to “high-capacity silicon anode materials and advanced pre-lithium technology”, 210Wh/kg lithium iron phosphate batteries have achieved such a high energy density. On January 9, NIO released a 150kWh solid-state battery pack with a single energy density of 360Wh/kg, and announced that it will be installed in cars in the fourth quarter of 2022, indicating that the commercialization of solid-state battery technology is further accelerating.

On January 13, the automotive think tank released its first new car, carrying the cutting-edge battery technology jointly developed with CATL, and for the first time announced the adoption of “doped lithium silicon filling technology, single-cell battery energy density 300 wh/kg”. On January 18, Guangzhou Automobile Group revealed that models equipped with silicon anode batteries have entered the actual vehicle test stage as planned and will be launched this year. Fang Jianhua said that in 2021, there will be some new technology introductions and even breakthroughs in the fields of power battery materials, high nickel anodes, silicon carbon anode materials, new composite fluid collection materials and conductive materials. These technologies will play a key role in improving the performance of power batteries.

Strong market expectations have also inspired power battery companies to accelerate their expansion, especially the leading power battery companies continue to compete to increase their market share in the future. On February 2, Ningde Times announced plans to build three production bases in Zhaoqing, Guangdong, Yibin, Sichuan, and Ningde, Fujian. It is expected to increase the production capacity of 79GWh, with a total investment of up to 29 billion yuan. On December 31, 2020, Ningde Times just announced a 39 billion yuan expansion plan. On February 3, Yiwei Lithium Energy also announced that Sun’s Yiwei Power Hong Kong plans to invest US$128 million to establish Yiwei Power in Huizhou to expand the production scale of power batteries. 2021 is destined to be the year of capacity expansion for major power battery companies. According to sources, the Ningde Times Cheri Bay project is progressing in an orderly manner, and the first and second plants are expected to be put into use in October this year. China Aviation Building Lithium A6 project is also stepping up equipment installation and commissioning, and will usher in formal production. As early as November 2020, Honeycomb Energy announced the construction of a 24GWh factory in Europe, with a total investment of 15.5 billion yuan.

However, there is crazy expansion on one side, and the question of capacity utilization on the other. Take the Ningde era as an example. According to the company’s annual report, the capacity utilization rate in 2019 was 89.17%. In the first half of 2020, the capacity utilization rate was only 52.50%. Therefore, industry personage Wang Min said that based on the positive judgment of the market, major battery companies are accelerating the expansion of production, but the issue of power battery capacity utilization also needs attention. If the capacity utilization rate of leading enterprises is insufficient, the situation of small and medium-sized enterprises will be more serious. The capacity structure of power batteries is excessive and the capacity utilization rate is insufficient. The supply of power batteries is tight and there is overcapacity. Among them, there is a shortage of high-end and high-quality production capacity, and the production capacity of low-end products is insufficient. On the supply side, high-end products require a lot of battery power. Therefore, this is a good explanation. Head battery companies are accelerating their expansion in order to increase the supply of high-end production capacity.

In 2021, the power battery industry will not slow down. On January 11, Qianjiang Automobile announced that its Qianjiang Lithium Battery had applied to go online due to non-repayment of capital, and another power battery company had been eliminated. Prior to this, many companies such as Watma and Hubei Lions have applied to go online due to insolvency. For the power battery industry, 2021 will continue to be a good year, but it is not beneficial to all companies. From historical data, there are 73 companies that will support cell production in 2020; 79 companies in 2019 and 110 companies in 2018. There is no doubt that by 2021, the market concentration of power batteries is still improving, and the industry reshuffle will continue