Rau feem ntau kev lag luam, xyoo 2020 dhau los yog qhov nyuaj heev, tab sis rau lub zog tshiab, nws yog lub xyoo muaj hmoo.

NIO yog lub zog tshiab hauv kev lag luam tsheb tsim khoom hauv tsev. Txij li thaum nws cov npe nyob rau hauv Teb Chaws Asmeskas Tshuag lag luam thaum Lub Rau Hli 2020, nws cov nqi sib faib tau nce ntau dua 1,200%, tshaj li tus nqi lag luam ntawm cov tuam txhab tsheb ib txwm muaj xws li Mercedes-Benz thiab General Motors. Tsis txhob hais Tesla ntawm qhov nruab nrab ntawm cua daj cua dub. Nws cov nqi lag luam tam sim no yog kwv yees li $ 830 nphom, dhau ntawm General Motors, Toyota thiab Ford ua ke.

Qhov nce ntawm lub zog tshiab tsheb ib txwm txhais tau tias muaj kev xav tau ntau ntxiv. Hauv rau lub hlis dhau los, cov roj teeb lithium hlau phosphate tau pib ua haujlwm dua.

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm Tuam Tshoj Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, kev muag khoom ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob hauv tsev hauv xyoo 2020 yuav yog 65.9GWh, ntawm qhov kev muag khoom loj yuav yog 34.8GWh, ib xyoos ib zaug txo ntawm 34.4%; Kev muag khoom ntawm lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb yuav yog 30.8GWh, ib xyoos ib zaug nce ntawm 49.2%. Qhov no tsuas yog lub roj teeb hluav taws xob nkaus xwb nrog kev muag khoom ntau xyoo.

Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, cuam tshuam los ntawm kev sib raug zoo ntawm kev muab khoom thiab kev thov, txij li Lub Ib Hlis 2021, tus nqi ntawm cov roj teeb hauv tsev-qib lithium carbonate tau nce ntxiv, thiab tus nqi tam sim no feem ntau yog 62,000-67,000 yuan / tuj.

Vim li cas lub roj teeb lithium hlau phosphate, uas tsis nyiam los ntawm kev ua lag luam yav dhau los, dhau los ua “tus cwj pwm qab zib” ntawm kev ua lag luam? Puas yog lub roj teeb lithium hlau phosphate rov tshwm sim dua?

hwj chim thiab lub ntsiab, nrov qauv pab tshem tawm

Raws li cov ntaub ntawv tshaj tawm los ntawm cov ntaub ntawv tshiab fern, cov ntaub ntawv txheeb xyuas cov khoom siv lithium hlau phosphate hauv 2019 yog 97,500 tons, uas tau nce mus rau 142,000 tons hauv 2020, ib xyoo-rau-xyoo nce ntawm 45.7%, thiab qhov kev loj hlob yog ntau. siab dua lwm cov ntaub ntawv cathode.

Tshwj xeeb tshaj yog, cov zis yog feem ntau concentrated nyob rau hauv ob lub tuam txhab ua lag luam nyob rau hauv lub teb chaws Yelemees, Fangna thiab Hunan Yuling; ntawm lawv, nrog cov neeg siv khoom ruaj khov thiab muaj peev xwm ua tau zoo, cov khoom tsim tawm txhua xyoo txuas ntxiv mus. Guoxuan High-Tech yog dav suav hais tias yog ib tug pioneer nyob rau hauv lub tshav pob ntawm lub zog cia thiab tsheb kauj vab, ua raws li nws tus kheej xav tau rau lithium hlau.

(Daim duab los ntawm “Foresight Economist”)

Yav dhau los, lithium hlau phosphate feem ntau yog tsom rau hauv lub zog hluav taws xob, tab sis tom qab ntawd vim yog cov qauv kev txhawb nqa, kev txhim kho pib stagnate. Lithium hlau phosphate yog nyiam nyob rau hauv qhov chaw tsis muaj zog xws li lub zog cia vim nws cov txiaj ntsig zoo.

Txawm li cas los xij, qhov kev sib ntaus sib tua tseem ceeb ntawm lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb yog thaj chaw ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob. Xyoo 2020, kev lag luam roj teeb hluav taws xob yuav suav txog ze li ib nrab ntawm kev siv cov khoom siv lithium hlau phosphate, kev lag luam cia hluav taws xob yuav suav nrog tsawg dua 30%, thiab kev saib xyuas tom qab muag thiab cov tsheb kauj vab yuav suav txog 7% thiab 4%. , raws.

Tsis ntev los no, cov roj teeb lithium hlau phosphate tau pib rov tuaj dua, feem ntau vim yog kev tawg ntawm lub hwj chim roj teeb lag luam. Ntau tus qauv nrov hauv xyoo 2020 tau nruab nrog lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb, suav nrog Tesla Model 3 nruab nrog Ningde zaug lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb, BYD Han nruab nrog lithium hlau phosphate hniav roj teeb, thiab feem ntau qauv ntawm Wuling Hongguang MINI kuj tau nruab nrog lithium hlau phosphate. . Roj teeb.

Kev siv thev naus laus zis, kev pab nyiaj los yog yav tom ntej yog txhua yam kev kwv yees

Kuv ntseeg tias cov neeg feem coob paub txog lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb. Vim nws lub neej ua haujlwm ntev, kev nyab xeeb siab, zoo kub tsis kam, muaj peev xwm loj, thiab kev tiv thaiv ib puag ncig, nws tau nyiam cov neeg siv khoom thoob plaws hauv kev lag luam. Nyob rau theem pib ntawm kev lag luam tsheb tshiab hluav taws xob hauv tsev, feem ntau cov tsheb hluav taws xob siv lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb, xws li Roewe E550 thiab BYD Qin thaum ntxov.

Txawm li cas los xij, raws li txoj cai nyiaj pab cuam txuas nrog lub roj teeb lub zog ceev, qhov kev thov rau cov hluav taws xob ntshiab ntau ntxiv, thiab kev txhim kho ntawm ternary lithium roj teeb thev naus laus zis, ternary lithium roj teeb uas muaj zog ntau dua thiab muaj peev xwm tau pib nyiam los ntawm kev ua lag luam.

Tib lub sijhawm, qee qhov tsis txaus ntawm lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb kuj tau nthuav dav.

Piv txwv li, qhov kev vibration ceev thiab compaction ceev ntawm lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb muaj tsawg heev, uas ua rau tsis tshua muaj zog ceev; Nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm qhov kub thiab txias tsis kam, qhov kev txwv qis ntawm kev siv cov roj teeb lithium ternary yog -30 ℃, thaum qhov kev txwv qis ntawm kev siv cov roj ntsha lithium hlau phosphate yog -At 20 ° C, lub zog attenuation ntawm lithium hlau phosphate. roj teeb nyob rau lub caij ntuj no yog pom tseeb dua. Qhov no kuj yog tus yuam sij rau BYD txoj kev vam meej nyob rau yav qab teb Tuam Tshoj, tab sis nws nyuaj rau qhib lub lag luam sab qaum teb.

Tam sim no, cov roj teeb lithium hlau phosphate tau rov qab los ntawm kev ua lag luam, feem ntau yog vim muaj ob yam hauv qab no:

Ib qho yog qhov kev hloov pauv hauv kev siv tshuab. Tom qab tso tawm BYD cov hniav roj teeb, Guniu Technology tau tshaj tawm cov khoom siv roj teeb lithium hlau phosphate tshiab thaum Lub Ib Hlis 8, 2021. Raws li “cov khoom siv muaj peev xwm ntawm silicon anode thiab qib siab ua ntej lithium”, nws lub zog ceev yog 210Wh / kg.

Hauv ob peb hnub tom ntej no, NiO yuav tso lub roj teeb 150kWh (tom qab piav qhia thiab lees paub tias nws yog lub roj teeb ib nrab) nrog lub zog ceev ntawm 360Wh / kg. Zhihai Electric tau tshaj tawm nws thawj lub tsheb tshiab thiab tshaj tawm tias nws siv cov cuab yeej siv hluav taws xob sib txuas ua ke tsim nrog CATL. Lub zog ceev ntawm ib lub roj teeb tuaj yeem ncav cuag 300Wh / kg. Ob lub tuam txhab tau txais “silicon anode khoom + pre-lithium” thev naus laus zis.

Los ntawm lub sijhawm ncua sijhawm, tsawg dua ib hlis tau dhau los txij li xyoo 2021. Nyob rau hauv lub sijhawm high-tech, Ningde, Wei, Smart Cars thiab GAC qhia qhov kev cia siab ntawm lithium thev naus laus zis ntawm silicon anode cov ntaub ntawv, qhia txog cov koob hmoov ntawm cov thev naus laus zis tshiab ntawm “silicon carbon. anode, pre lithium” phosphoric acid Lithium hlau roj teeb yuav tsum tau qhib rau kev lag luam-scale nce qib thiab daim ntawv thov xyoo no.

Qhov thib ob, txoj cai them nyiaj yog maj mam pib, thiab cov tuam txhab tsheb tshiab lub zog yuav tsum tau txo qis tus nqi ntawm kev tsim tsheb, yog li lawv tig lawv cov xim rau lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb.

Thaum lub Plaub Hlis 2020, txoj cai tshiab txhawb zog txhawb zog tau tshaj tawm, uas tsis yog tsuas yog hais tias tus nqi ntawm cov nyiaj pab them nqi zog tshiab ua ntej cov nyiaj pab yuav tsum nyob rau hauv 300,000 yuan, tab sis kuj tau hais txog kev siv zog thiab kev nrawm ntawm kev txo qis ntawm cov nyiaj pab hauv ob xyoos tom ntej. Hnub kawg ntawm 2020, Ministry of Finance, Ministry of Industry thiab Information Technology, Ministry of Science thiab Technology, thiab National Development thiab Reform Commission tau sib koom ua ke tshaj tawm tsab ntawv ceeb toom tias cov qauv nyiaj pab rau cov tsheb tshiab hauv xyoo 2021 yuav yog. txo los ntawm 20% los ntawm qib 2020. Nyob rau tib lub sijhawm, qhov tam sim no kev yuav khoom txhawb nqa kev qhia txog qhov system thiab qhov yuav tsum tau ua yuav tsis hloov pauv hauv 2021.

Piv nrog ternary lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb, lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb muaj qhov zoo. Yav dhau los, tus neeg ua haujlwm ntawm lub roj teeb system chaw tsim khoom tau hais tias qhov tsawg kawg nkaus tus nqi ntawm lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb tsis suav nrog se yog kwv yees li 0.4 yuan / Wh, tus nqi ntawm lub pob puab yog 0.6 yuan / Wh thiab tus nqi sib txawv ntawm cov tuam txhab sib txawv yog 0.1. -0.15 yuan / Wh Txawm ntau; Tus nqi ntawm ternary NCM523 pob yog hais txog 0.75-0.9 yuan / Wh.

Tsis yog qhov zoo tshaj plaws, ob qho tib si tuaj yeem ua tau raws li qhov xav tau ntawm kev sib txawv

Tsis muaj dab tsi zoo tag nrho. Txawm hais tias muaj breakthroughs nyob rau hauv lub zog ceev thiab nqi zoo, muab piv nrog ternary lithium roj teeb, lub recycling nqi ntawm cov roj teeb tom qab ua hauj lwm yog tsawg dua, uas yog tseem muaj ib tug loj disadvantage.

Hauv Suav teb, yog tias lub peev xwm ntawm cov roj teeb hluav taws xob tseem muaj siab tom qab so haujlwm, nws yuav maj mam siv. Yog tias lub roj teeb muaj peev xwm tsawg heev, nws yuav raug muab tshem tawm thiab rov ua dua tshiab. Piv nrog lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb, cov ntsiab lus ntawm nickel, cobalt, thiab manganese nyob rau hauv ternary lithium roj teeb yog siab dua, uas muaj ib tug ntau dua recycling nqi thiab yog yooj yim rau recycling lag luam kom tau nyiaj ntau dua. Yog li ntawd, cov qauv kev lag luam tau txais txiaj ntsig rau kev rov ua dua pov tseg ternary lithium roj teeb yog qhov pib paub tab.

Nyob rau hauv sib piv, recycling lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb tsis yog li ntawd yig. Tus nqi rov ua dua tam sim no ntawm ternary lithium roj teeb yog 0.2-0.3 yuan / Wh, thiab cov nqi seem ntawm cov roj teeb lithium uas seem yog li 0.1 yuan / Wh, thaum lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb yuav luag tsis muaj nqis.

Tam sim no, txawm hais tias muaj qhov zoo ntawm lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb nyob rau hauv cov nqe lus ntawm kev caij tsheb kauj vab thiab kev nyab xeeb, ternary lithium roj teeb tseem muaj lawv cov yam ntxwv tshwj xeeb. Tsis yog ob qho ntawm ob qho no tsis tuaj yeem sib koom ua ke, tab sis-lithium hlau phosphate roj teeb yuav raug siv rau ntau daim ntawv thov. Cov kev pab cuam hauv cov tsheb lag luam hluav taws xob thiab cov neeg caij tsheb ntawm A-chav kawm thiab A0-chav kawm thiab hauv qab no yog cov rhiab rau cov nqi. Qhov no ntawm cov neeg siv khoom yog nrhiav tus nqi; ternary lithium roj teeb yuav siv ntau dua nyob rau hauv high-end neeg nrog caij tsheb uas tsom rau kev ua tau zoo.