Ezimbonini eziningi, u-2020 odlule ngokungangabazeki bekuwunyaka onzima kakhulu, kodwa ezimotweni ezintsha zamandla, bekungunyaka wenhlanhla.

I-NIO ingamandla amasha embonini yasekhaya yokukhiqiza izimoto. Selokhu yafakwa ohlwini emakethe yamasheya yaseMelika ngoJuni 2020, intengo yayo yamasheya ikhuphuke ngaphezu kuka-1,200%, idlula inani lemakethe lezinkampani zezimoto zendabuko ezifana neMercedes-Benz neGeneral Motors. Ingasaphathwa uTesla enkabeni yesiphepho. Inani layo lamanje emakethe lilinganiselwa ku-$830 billion, lidlula iGeneral Motors, iToyota kanye neFord zihlangene.

Ukwenyuka kwezimoto zamandla amasha ngokwemvelo kusho ukwanda okukhulu kwesidingo. Ezinyangeni eziyisithupha ezedlule, amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate aseqale ukusebenza futhi.

Ngokusho kwedatha ekhishwe yi-China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, ukuthengiswa okuhlanganisiwe kwamabhethri kagesi asekhaya ngo-2020 kuzoba ngu-65.9GWh, lapho ukuthengiswa okuhlanganisiwe kuzoba ngu-34.8GWh, ukwehla konyaka nonyaka ngo-34.4%; ukuthengiswa okuqoqiwe kwamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate kuzoba ngu-30.8GWh, okuwukukhuphuka konyaka ngama-49.2%. Leli ukuphela kwebhethri lamandla elinokwenyuka konyaka nonyaka ekuthengisweni.

Ngesikhathi esifanayo, okuthintekayo ubudlelwano phakathi kokuhlinzekwa nokufunwa, kusukela ngoJanuwari 2021, intengo yebhethri ye-lithium carbonate yasekhaya iqhubekile nokukhuphuka, futhi intengo yamanje ngokuvamile i-62,000-67,000 yuan/ton.

Kungani ibhethri ye-lithium iron phosphate, eyayingathandwa yimakethe esikhathini esidlule, yaba “imfanelo emnandi” yemakethe? Ingabe ibhethri ye-lithium iron phosphate seliphumile futhi?

amandla namamodeli amakhulu, adumile asiza ukukhumula

Ngokusho kwedatha ekhishwe ulwazi olusha lwe-fern, umphumela wezibalo wezinto ze-lithium iron phosphate ngo-2019 wawungamathani angama-97,500, akhuphuke afinyelela kumathani ayi-142,000 ngo-2020, ukukhuphuka konyaka ngama-45.7%, futhi izinga lokukhula belilikhulu kakhulu. ephakeme kunezinye izinto ze-cathode.

Ngokuqondile, okukhiphayo kugxile kakhulu ezinkampanini ezimbili ezihamba phambili eJalimane, iFangna neHunan Yuling; phakathi kwabo, ngeziteshi zamakhasimende ezinzile kanye nezinzuzo zamandla okukhiqiza, okukhiphayo konyaka kuyaqhubeka nokuhola. IGuoxuan High-Tech ithathwa kabanzi njengephayona emkhakheni wokugcinwa kwamandla namabhayisikili, ilandelwa eduze nesidingo sayo se-lithium iron.

(isithombe esivela ku-“Foresight Economist”)

Esikhathini esidlule, i-lithium iron phosphate yayigxile kakhulu emkhakheni wamandla, kodwa kamuva ngenxa yezindinganiso zomxhaso, ukuthuthukiswa kwaqala ukuntengantenga. I-lithium iron phosphate ithandwa ezindaweni ezingewona amandla njengokugcina amandla ngenxa yezinzuzo zayo ezingabizi kakhulu.

Kodwa-ke, inkundla yempi eyinhloko yamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate inkambu yamabhethri wamandla. Ngo-2020, imakethe yebhethri yamandla izobalelwa cishe uhhafu wokusetshenziswa kwezinto ze-lithium iron phosphate, imakethe yokugcina amandla izoba ngaphansi kwama-30%, kanti imikhakha yokugcinwa kokuthengiswa ngemuva kokuthengisa kanye namabhayisikili izobalelwa ku-7% no-4%. , ngokulandelana.

Muva nje, amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate aseqalile ukuvela futhi, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yempumelelo emakethe yebhethri yamandla. Amamodeli amaningi adumile ngo-2020 afakelwe amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate, okuhlanganisa i-Tesla Model 3 efakwe amabhethri e-Lithium iron phosphate izikhathi ze-Ningde, i-BYD Han ifakwe amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate blade, kanye namamodeli amaningi e-Wuling Hongguang MINI nawo afakwe i-lithium iron phosphate. . Ibhethri.

Ukuthuthuka kwezobuchwepheshe, uxhaso noma ikusasa konke kuyabikezelwa

Ngikholelwa ukuthi abantu abaningi bajwayele amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate. Ngenxa yokuphila kwayo isikhathi eside, ukuphepha okuphezulu, ukumelana nokushisa okuphezulu okuhle, umthamo omkhulu, nokuvikelwa kwemvelo, idonse ukunaka okubanzi embonini. Ekuqaleni kwemakethe yezimoto zamandla amasha, izimoto eziningi zikagesi zazisebenzisa amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate, njenge-Roewe E550 yokuqala ne-BYD Qin.

Kodwa-ke, njengoba inqubomgomo yoxhaso ixhunyaniswa nokuminyana kwamandla ebhethri, isidingo sohla lukagesi olumsulwa siyakhula, kanye nokuthuthukiswa kobuchwepheshe bebhethri ye-lithium ye-ternary, amabhethri e-ternary lithium anokuminyana kwamandla aphezulu kanye namazinga omthamo aseqalile ukuthandwa yimakethe.

Ngasikhathi sinye, ukushiyeka okuthile kwamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate nawo akhulisiwe.

Isibonelo, ukuminyana kokudlidliza kanye nokuqina kokuqina kwamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate kuphansi kakhulu, okuholela ekukhuleni kwamandla aphansi; mayelana nokumelana nokushisa okuphansi, umkhawulo ophansi wokushisa okuphansi ukusetshenziswa kwamabhethri e-ternary lithium -30 ℃, kanti umkhawulo ophansi wokushisa okuphansi ukusetshenziswa kwamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate -Ku-20 ° C, ukuncishiswa kwamandla kwe-lithium iron phosphate amabhethri ebusika kubonakala kakhudlwana. Lokhu futhi kuyisihluthulelo sempumelelo ye-BYD eningizimu yeChina, kodwa kunzima ukuvula imakethe esenyakatho.

Njengamanje, amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate asephinde athola umusa emakethe, ikakhulukazi ngenxa yalezi zici ezimbili ezilandelayo:

Enye intuthuko kwezobuchwepheshe. Ngemva kokwethulwa kwebhethri ye-blade ye-BYD, i-Guniu Technology yethula umkhiqizo omusha webhethri le-lithium iron phosphate ngoJanuwari 8, 2021. Ngokusekelwe “kwi-high-gram umthamo we-silicon anode impahla kanye nobuchwepheshe be-pre-lithium obuthuthukisiwe”, ukuminyana kwayo kwamandla kungu-210Wh/kg.

Ezinsukwini ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-NiO izokwethula ibhethri lesimo esiqinile esingu-150kWh (kamuva kwachazwa futhi yavuma ukuthi empeleni ibhethri eliqinile kancane) elinamandla okuminyana angu-360Wh/kg. I-Zhihai Electric ikhiphe imoto yayo yokuqala entsha futhi yamemezela ukuthi isebenzisa ubuchwepheshe bebhethri obusezingeni eliphezulu obuthuthukiswe ngokuhlanganyela ne-CATL. Ukuminyana kwamandla ebhethri elilodwa kungafinyelela ku-300Wh/kg. Zombili izinkampani zamukele ubuchwepheshe be-“silicon anode material + pre-lithium”.

Kusukela kumugqa wesikhathi, sekudlule isikhathi esingaphansi kwenyanga kusukela ngo-2021. Esikhathini sobuchwepheshe obuphezulu, i-Ningde, i-Wei, i-Smart Cars ne-GAC yabonisa ithemba ngobuchwepheshe be-lithium bezinto ze-silicon anode, okubonisa izibusiso zobuchwepheshe obusha be-“silicon carbon”. I-anode, pre lithium” phosphoric acid Amabhethri ensimbi ye-lithium kulindeleke ukuthi avulekele ukukhuthazwa nokusetshenziswa kwezinga lemboni kulo nyaka.

Okwesibili, umgomo womxhaso uya ngokuya uwohloka kancane kancane, futhi abakhiqizi bezimoto ezintsha zamandla badinga ngokuphuthumayo ukunciphisa izindleko zokukhiqiza izimoto, ngakho-ke baphendulela ukunaka kwabo kumabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate.

Ngo-April 2020, kwamenyezelwa inqubomgomo entsha yoxhaso lwamandla, engagcini nje ngokubeka ukuthi intengo yoxhaso lwamandla amasha ngaphambi kosizo kufanele ibe phakathi kwama-yuan angu-300,000, kodwa futhi ibeka umfutho nesivinini sokwehla kancane kancane koxhaso eminyakeni emibili ezayo. Ngosuku lokugcina lwango-2020, uMnyango Wezezimali, uMnyango Wezimboni Nobuchwepheshe Bolwazi, uMnyango Wezesayensi Nobuchwepheshe, kanye neKhomishana Kazwelonke Yezokuthuthukiswa Nezinguquko bakhiphe isaziso sokuthi izinga loxhaso lwezimoto ezintsha zamandla ngo-2021 lizoba yehle ngo-20% ukusuka ezingeni lika-2020. Ngasikhathi sinye, uhlelo lwamanje lwenkomba ye-procurement subsidy nezidingo zomkhawulo kuzohlala kungashintshile ngo-2021.

Uma kuqhathaniswa namabhethri e-ternary lithium iron phosphate, amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate anezinzuzo ezinkulu. Ngaphambilini, umuntu ophethe umkhiqizi wesistimu yebhethri wathi inani elincane lamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate ngaphandle kwentela lilinganiselwa ku-0.4 yuan / Wh, intengo yephakheji yangaphakathi ingu-0.6 yuan / Wh futhi umehluko wamanani phakathi kwezinkampani ezahlukene ngu-0.1 -0.15 yuan / Wh Ngisho nangaphezulu; intengo yephakeji ye-ternary ye-NCM523 icishe ibe ngu-0.75-0.9 yuan/Wh.

Futhi akukho okuphelele, kokubili kungahlangabezana nezidingo zokuhlukanisa

Akukho lutho oluphelele. Nakuba kukhona ukuphumelela ekuminyaneni kwamandla kanye nezinzuzo zezindleko, uma kuqhathaniswa namabhethri e-lithium e-ternary, inani lokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri ngemva kokuthatha umhlalaphansi liphansi, okusengumumo omkhulu.

E-China, uma umthamo osele webhethri lamandla usephezulu ngemuva kokuthatha umhlalaphansi, uzosetshenziswa kancane kancane. Uma umthamo webhethri uphansi kakhulu, izohlakazwa futhi igaywe kabusha. Uma kuqhathaniswa namabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate, okuqukethwe kwe-nickel, i-cobalt, ne-manganese kumabhethri e-ternary lithium kuphezulu, enenani eliphezulu lokugaywa kabusha futhi elilungele amabhizinisi agaywa kabusha ukuze athole inzuzo ephezulu. Ngakho-ke, imodeli yenzuzo yokuhweba yokugaywa kabusha kwamabhethri e-lithium kadoti isivuthiwe.

Ngokuphambene, ukuvuselela amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate akongi kangako. Intengo yamanje yokuphinda igaywe ngokulandelana kwamabhethri e-ternary lithium ngu-0.2-0.3 yuan/Wh, futhi inani eliyinsalela lamabhethri e-lithium alahliwe lingaba ngu-0.1 yuan/Wh, kuyilapho amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate ecishe angabi nalutho.

Manje, naphezu kwezinzuzo ezingokwemvelo zamabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate mayelana nokuhamba ngebhayisikili nokuphepha, amabhethri e-ternary lithium asenezici zawo ezihlukile. Akukho kulokhu kokubili okungahlali ndawonye, ​​kodwa amabhethri e-lithium iron phosphate azosetshenziswa ezinhlelweni eziningi. Izinhlelo ezimotweni ezithengisa ngogesi kanye nezimoto zabagibeli ze-A-class ne-A0-class nangaphansi zizwela kakhulu ezintengo. Le ngxenye yabathengi iphishekela inani; I-ternary lithium amabhethri azosetshenziswa kakhulu ezimotweni zabagibeli ezisezingeni eliphezulu ezigxile ekusebenzeni.