Kumashishini amaninzi, u-2020 odlulileyo ngokungathandabuzekiyo ibingunyaka onzima kakhulu, kodwa kwiimoto zamandla amatsha, ibingunyaka wethamsanqa.

I-NIO ngamandla amatsha kushishino lokwenziwa kweemoto zasekhaya. Ukusukela ekudwelisweni kwayo kwimakethi yesitokhwe saseMelika ngoJuni ka-2020, ixabiso lesabelo sayo linyuke ngaphezulu kwe-1,200%, lidlula ixabiso lentengiso yeenkampani zemoto zemveli ezifana neMercedes-Benz kunye neGeneral Motors. Ungakhankanyi uTesla embindini wesaqhwithi. Ixabiso layo langoku lemarike limalunga ne-830 yeebhiliyoni zeerandi, ligqitha iGeneral Motors, iToyota kunye neFord zidityanisiwe.

Ukunyuka kwezithuthi zamandla amatsha ngokwemvelo kuthetha ukunyuka okukhulu kwemfuno. Kwiinyanga ezintandathu ezidlulileyo, iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziye zaqalisa ukusebenza kwakhona.

Ngokwedatha ekhutshwe yi-China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, intengiso eyongezelelekileyo yeebhetri zamandla asekhaya ngo-2020 iya kuba yi-65.9GWh, apho intengiso eyongezelelweyo iya kuba yi-34.8GWh, ukwehla konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-34.4%; intengiso eyongezelelweyo yeebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate iya kuba yi-30.8GWh, ukunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwe-49.2%. Le yibhetri yamandla kuphela ngokunyuka konyaka-ngonyaka kwiintengiso.

Ngexesha elifanayo, elichaphazelekayo ngobudlelwane phakathi kokubonelela kunye nemfuno, ukususela ngoJanuwari 2021, ixabiso le-lithium carbonate yasekhaya ibhetri-grade iqhubekile nokunyuka, kwaye ixabiso langoku liyi-62,000-67,000 yuan / ton.

Kutheni le nto ibhetri ye-lithium iron phosphate, engazange ithandwa yimarike ngaphambili, ibe “yimpawu ezimnandi” zemarike? Ingaba ibhetri ye-lithium iron phosphate iphumile kwakhona?

amandla kunye nengundoqo, iimodeli ezithandwayo zinceda ukukhupha

Ngokwedatha ekhutshwe lulwazi olutsha lwe-fern, iziphumo zezibalo ze-lithium iron phosphate materials ngo-2019 zaziziitoni ezingama-97,500, eziye zonyuka zaya kutsho kwiitoni ezingama-142,000 ngo-2020, ukonyuka konyaka nge-45.7%, kwaye izinga lokukhula lalininzi. phezulu kunezinye izinto ze-cathode.

Ngokukodwa, imveliso igxininiswe kwiinkampani ezimbini eziphambili eJamani, iFangna kunye neHunan Yuling; phakathi kwabo, kunye nemijelo yomthengi ozinzile kunye neenzuzo zomthamo wemveliso, imveliso yonyaka iyaqhubeka ikhokela. I-Guoxuan High-Tech ithathwa ngokubanzi njengovulindlela kwindawo yokugcina amandla kunye neebhayisikile, ilandelwa ngokusondeleyo yimfuno yayo ye-lithium iron.

(umfanekiso ovela kwi “Foresight Economist”)

Ngaphambili, i-lithium iron phosphate yayigxininiswe kakhulu kwicandelo lamandla, kodwa kamva ngenxa yemigangatho yenkxaso-mali, uphuhliso lwaqala ukudodobala. I-lithium iron phosphate ithandwa kwiindawo ezingenamandla ezifana nokugcinwa kwamandla ngenxa yeenzuzo zayo ezingabizi kakhulu.

Nangona kunjalo, ibala ledabi eliphambili leebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate yintsimi yeebhetri zamandla. Ngo-2020, imarike yebhetri yamandla iya kuphendula malunga nesiqingatha sokusetyenziswa kwezinto ze-lithium iron phosphate, imarike yokugcina amandla iya kuba ngaphantsi kwe-30%, kwaye emva kokuthengisa ukugcinwa kunye namacandelo ebhayisikile kuya kuba ne-7% kunye ne-4%. , ngokulandelelanayo.

Kutshanje, iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziye zaqala ukuphinda zithathelwe ingqalelo, ubukhulu becala ngenxa yokuphumelela kwimarike yebhetri yamandla. Iimodeli ezininzi ezidumileyo ngo-2020 zixhotyiswe ngeebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate, kuquka iTesla Model 3 ixhotyiswe ngamaxesha e-Ningde lithium iron phosphate iibhetri, iBYD Han ixhotyiswe ngeebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate blade, kwaye uninzi lweemodeli zeWuling Hongguang MINI nazo zixhotyiswe nge-lithium iron phosphate. . Ibhetri.

Ukuphumelela kwezobuchwepheshe, iinkxaso-mali okanye ikamva zonke zinokucingelwa kwangaphambili

Ndiyakholelwa ukuba abaninzi abantu baqhelene neebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate. Ngenxa yobomi bayo obude benkonzo, ukhuseleko oluphezulu, ukumelana nobushushu obuphezulu, umthamo omkhulu, kunye nokukhuselwa kwendalo, iye yatsala ingqalelo ebanzi kwishishini. Kwinqanaba lokuqala lemarike yemoto yasekhaya yamandla amatsha, uninzi lwezithuthi zombane zasebenzisa iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate, ezifana ne-Roewe E550 yokuqala kunye ne-BYD Qin.

Nangona kunjalo, njengoko umgaqo-nkqubo wenkxaso-mali unxulunyaniswa nokuxinana kwamandla ebhetri, imfuno yoluhlu lombane olusulungekileyo lonyuka, kunye nophuhliso lwetekhnoloji ye-ternary lithium yebhetri, iibhetri ze-ternary ze-lithium ezinoxinano lwamandla aphezulu kunye namanqanaba omthamo sele eqalisile ukuthandwa yimarike.

Ngexesha elifanayo, ezinye iintsilelo zeebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziye zandiswa.

Ngokomzekelo, ukuxinana kwe-vibration kunye nokuxinwa kwe-compaction yeebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziphantsi kakhulu, okubangelwa ukuxinwa kwamandla aphantsi; malunga nokumelana nokushisa okuphantsi, umda ophantsi wokusetyenziswa kweqondo lokushisa eliphantsi kweebhetri ze-lithium ze-ternary yi-30 ℃, ngelixa umda ophantsi wokushisa ophantsi wokusetyenziswa kweebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate -Kwi-20 ° C, ukutshatyalaliswa kwamandla e-lithium iron phosphate. iibhetri ebusika kubonakala ngakumbi. Oku kwakhona isitshixo kwimpumelelo BYD kumazantsi China, kodwa kunzima ukuvula imarike emantla.

Okwangoku, iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziphinde zafumana inkoliseko yentengiso, ikakhulu ngenxa yale miba mibini ilandelayo:

Enye kukuphumelela kweteknoloji. Ukulandela ukuqaliswa kwebhetri ye-BYD ye-blade, i-Guniu Technology yasungula imveliso entsha yebhetri ye-lithium ye-iron phosphate ngoJanuwari 8, 2021. Ngokusekelwe “kwi-high-gram umthamo we-silicon anode izinto kunye nobuchwepheshe obuphambili be-lithium”, ubuninzi bayo bamandla yi-210Wh / kg.

Kwiintsuku ezimbalwa ezizayo, i-NiO iya kusungula i-150kWh ibhetri ye-slid-state (kamva yachazwa kwaye yavuma ukuba ngenene ibhetri eqinile) kunye noxinano lwamandla lwe-360Wh / kg. I-Zhihai Electric ikhuphe imoto yayo yokuqala entsha kwaye yabhengeza ukuba ithatha itekhnoloji yebhetri ebukhali ephuhliswe ngokudibeneyo neCATL. Ubuninzi bamandla ebhetri enye bunokufikelela kwi-300Wh/kg. Zombini iinkampani zamkele itekhnoloji ye “silicon anode + pre-lithium”.

Ukususela kumgca wexesha, ngaphantsi kwenyanga idlulile ukususela ngo-2021. Ngexesha eliphezulu, i-Ningde, i-Wei, i-Smart Cars kunye ne-GAC yabonisa ithemba malunga ne-lithium teknoloji yezinto ze-silicon anode, ebonisa iintsikelelo zeteknoloji entsha ye “silicon carbon”. i-anode, i-pre lithium” i-asidi ye-phosphoric Iibhetri zentsimbi ze-lithium zilindeleke ukuba zivulekele ukukhuthazwa komgangatho woshishino kunye nokusetyenziswa kulo nyaka.

Okwesibini, umgaqo-nkqubo wenkxaso-mali uyancipha ngokuthe ngcembe, kwaye abavelisi beemoto zamandla amatsha bafuna ngokukhawuleza ukunciphisa iindleko zokwenziwa kweemoto, ngoko ke bajika ingqalelo yabo kwiibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate.

Ngo-Epreli ka-2020, umgaqo-nkqubo omtsha wenkxaso yezamandla wabhengezwa, engatsho nje kuphela ukuba ixabiso lenkxaso-mali entsha phambi koncedo kufuneka libe phakathi kwe-yuan engama-300,000, kodwa likwachaza ubunzulu kunye nesantya sokuhla kancinci kancinci kwenkxaso-mali kule minyaka mibini izayo. Ngomhla wokugqibela ka-2020, i-Ofisi yoMphathiswa wezeMali, iSebe lezoShishino kunye neTekhnoloji yoLwazi, iSebe lezeNzululwazi kunye neTekhnoloji, kunye neKhomishini yoPhuhliso lweSizwe kunye noHlaziyo ngokudibeneyo bakhuphe isaziso sokuba umgangatho wenkxaso-mali yezithuthi zamandla amatsha ngo-2021 uya kuba. yehliswe nge-20% ukusuka kwinqanaba lika-2020. Kwangaxeshanye, inkqubo yesalathiso sobuchwephesha benkxaso-mali yangoku kunye neemfuno zomqobo ziya kuhlala zingatshintshi ngo-2021.

Xa kuthelekiswa neebhetri ze-ternary lithium iron phosphate, iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate zineenzuzo ezinkulu. Ngaphambili, umntu ophethe umenzi wenkqubo yebhetri uthe ixabiso elincinci leebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ngaphandle kwerhafu malunga ne-0.4 yuan / Wh, ixabiso lephakheji yangaphakathi yi-0.6 yuan / Wh kunye nokwahlukana kwexabiso phakathi kweenkampani ezahlukeneyo yi-0.1 -0.15 yuan / Wh Nangakumbi; ixabiso le-ternary NCM523 iphakheji malunga ne-0.75-0.9 yuan / Wh.

Akukho nto igqibeleleyo, zombini inokuhlangabezana neemfuno zokwahlula

Akukho nto igqibeleleyo. Nangona kukho impumelelo ekuxinaniseni kwamandla kunye neenzuzo zeendleko, xa kuthelekiswa neebhetri ze-lithium ze-ternary, ixabiso lokuphinda lisetyenziswe kweebhetri emva kokuthatha umhlalaphantsi lisezantsi, nto leyo iseyingxaki enkulu.

E-China, ukuba umthamo oseleyo webhetri yamandla usephezulu emva kokuthatha umhlalaphantsi, uya kusetyenziswa ngokuthe ngcembe. Ukuba umthamo webhetri usezantsi kakhulu, iya kuqhawuka iphinde isetyenziswe kwakhona. Xa kuthelekiswa neebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate, umxholo we-nickel, i-cobalt, kunye ne-manganese kwiibhetri ze-lithium ze-ternary ziphezulu, ezinexabiso eliphezulu lokuphinda lisetyenziswe kwaye lilungele ukuphinda kusetyenziswe amashishini ukufumana inzuzo ephezulu. Ke ngoko, imodeli yenzuzo yorhwebo yokuphinda isetyenziswe inkunkuma ye-ternary ibhetri ye-lithium ivuthiwe.

Ngokwahlukileyo, ukurisayikilisha iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate akuyonga kangako. Ixabiso langoku lokuphinda lisetyenziswe ngokulandelelana kweebhetri ze-ternary lithium yi-0.2-0.3 yuan/Wh, kwaye ixabiso elishiyekileyo leebhetri ze-lithium ezilahliweyo limalunga ne-0.1 yuan/Wh, ngelixa iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziphantse zingabi naxabiso.

Ngoku, ngaphandle kweenzuzo zendalo zeebhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate malunga nokuhamba ngebhayisikile kunye nokhuseleko, iibhetri ze-lithium ze-ternary ziseneempawu zazo ezizodwa. Akukho nanye kwezi zimbini ayikwazi ukuhlalisana, kodwa iibhetri ze-lithium iron phosphate ziya kusetyenziswa kwiinkqubo ezininzi. Iinkqubo kwiimoto zorhwebo zombane kunye neemoto zabahambi ze-A-class kunye ne-A0-class kwaye zingezantsi zinovakalelo ngakumbi kumaxabiso. Le nxalenye yabathengi ilandela ixabiso; iibhetri ze-lithium ze-ternary ziya kusetyenziswa ngakumbi kwiimoto zabahambi eziphezulu ezijolise ekusebenzeni.