For most industries, the past 2020 was undoubtedly a very difficult year, but for new energy vehicles, it was a lucky year.

NIO is a new force in the domestic automobile manufacturing industry. Since its listing on the US stock market in June 2020, its share price has risen by more than 1,200%, exceeding the market value of traditional automobile companies such as Mercedes-Benz and General Motors. Not to mention Tesla at the center of the storm. Its current market value is about $830 billion, surpassing General Motors, Toyota and Ford combined.

The rise of new energy vehicles naturally means a significant increase in demand. In the past six months, lithium iron phosphate batteries have begun to become active again.

According to the data released by the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, the cumulative sales of domestic power batteries in 2020 will be 65.9GWh, of which the cumulative sales will be 34.8GWh, a year-on-year decrease of 34.4%; the cumulative sales of lithium iron phosphate batteries will be 30.8GWh, a year-on-year increase of 49.2%. This is the only power battery with a year-on-year increase in sales.

At the same time, affected by the relationship between supply and demand, since January 2021, the price of domestic battery-grade lithium carbonate has continued to rise, and the current price is generally 62,000-67,000 yuan/ton.

Why did the lithium iron phosphate battery, which was not favored by the market in the past, become the “sweet attribute” of the market? Has the lithium iron phosphate battery take off again?

power and main, popular models help take off

According to the data released by the new fern information, the statistical output of lithium iron phosphate materials in 2019 was 97,500 tons, which increased to 142,000 tons in 2020, a year-on-year increase of 45.7%, and the growth rate was much higher than other cathode materials.

Specifically, the output is mainly concentrated in two leading companies in Germany, Fangna and Hunan Yuling; among them, with stable customer channels and production capacity advantages, the annual output continues to lead. Guoxuan High-Tech is widely regarded as a pioneer in the field of energy storage and bicycles, closely followed by its own demand for lithium iron.

(picture from “Foresight Economist”)

In the past, lithium iron phosphate was mainly concentrated in the power sector, but later due to subsidy standards, development began to stagnate. Lithium iron phosphate is favored in non-power fields such as energy storage due to its cost-effective advantages.

However, the main battlefield of lithium iron phosphate batteries is the field of power batteries. In 2020, the power battery market will account for nearly half of the consumption of lithium iron phosphate materials, the energy storage market will account for less than 30%, and the after-sales maintenance and bicycle sectors will account for 7% and 4%, respectively.

Recently, lithium iron phosphate batteries have begun to pick up again, largely because of breakthroughs in the power battery market. Many popular models in 2020 are equipped with lithium iron phosphate batteries, including Tesla Model 3 equipped with Ningde times lithium iron phosphate batteries, BYD Han equipped with lithium iron phosphate blade batteries, and most models of Wuling Hongguang MINI are also equipped with lithium iron phosphate. Battery.

Technological breakthroughs, subsidies or the future are all predictable

I believe most people are familiar with lithium iron phosphate batteries. Because of its long service life, high safety, good high temperature resistance, large capacity, and environmental protection, it has attracted widespread attention in the industry. In the early stage of the domestic new energy vehicle market, most electric vehicles used lithium iron phosphate batteries, such as the early Roewe E550 and BYD Qin.

However, as the subsidy policy is linked to battery energy density, the demand for pure electric range increases, and the development of ternary lithium battery technology, ternary lithium batteries with higher energy density and capacity levels have begun to be favored by the market.

At the same time, some shortcomings of lithium iron phosphate batteries have also been magnified.

For example, the vibration density and compaction density of lithium iron phosphate batteries are very low, resulting in low energy density; in terms of low temperature resistance, the lower limit of low temperature use of ternary lithium batteries is -30℃, while the lower limit of low temperature use of lithium iron phosphate batteries is -At 20°C, the power attenuation of lithium iron phosphate batteries in winter is more obvious. This is also the key to BYD’s success in southern China, but it is difficult to open the northern market.

At present, lithium iron phosphate batteries have regained the favor of the market, mainly due to the following two aspects:

One is a breakthrough in technology. Following the launch of BYD’s blade battery, Guniu Technology launched a new lithium iron phosphate battery product on January 8, 2021. Based on “high-gram capacity silicon anode material and advanced pre-lithium technology”, its energy density is 210Wh/ kg.

In the next few days, NiO will launch a 150kWh solid-state battery (later explained and admitted that it is actually a semi-solid battery) with an energy density of 360Wh/kg. Zhihai Electric released its first new car and announced that it adopts the cutting-edge battery technology jointly developed with CATL. The energy density of a single battery can reach 300Wh/kg. Both companies have adopted the “silicon anode material + pre-lithium” technology.

From the timeline, less than a month has passed since 2021. In the high-tech era, Ningde, Wei, Smart Cars and GAC expressed optimism about the lithium technology of silicon anode materials, signaling the blessings of the new technology of “silicon carbon anode, pre lithium” phosphoric acid Lithium iron batteries are expected to be open to industry-scale promotion and application this year.

Secondly, the subsidy policy is gradually ebbing, and new energy automobile manufacturers urgently need to reduce the cost of automobile manufacturing, so they turn their attention to lithium iron phosphate batteries.

In April 2020, the new energy subsidy policy was promulgated, which not only stipulates that the price of new energy subsidies before subsidies must be within 300,000 yuan, but also stipulates the intensity and speed of the gradual decline of subsidies in the next two years. On the last day of 2020, the Ministry of Finance, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, the Ministry of Science and Technology, and the National Development and Reform Commission jointly issued a notice that the subsidy standard for new energy vehicles in 2021 will be reduced by 20% from the 2020 level. At the same time, the current procurement subsidy technical indicator system and threshold requirements will remain unchanged in 2021.

Compared with ternary lithium iron phosphate batteries, lithium iron phosphate batteries have great advantages. Previously, the person in charge of the battery system manufacturer said that the minimum price of lithium iron phosphate batteries excluding tax is about 0.4 yuan / Wh, the price of the inner package is 0.6 yuan / Wh and the price difference between different companies is 0.1-0.15 yuan / Wh Even more; the price of the ternary NCM523 package is about 0.75-0.9 yuan/Wh.

Neither is perfect, both can meet the needs of differentiation

Nothing is perfect. Although there are breakthroughs in energy density and cost advantages, compared with ternary lithium batteries, the recycling value of batteries after retirement is lower, which is still a major disadvantage.

In China, if the remaining capacity of the power battery is still high after retirement, it will be gradually used. If the battery capacity is extremely low, it will be disassembled and recycled. Compared with lithium iron phosphate batteries, the content of nickel, cobalt, and manganese in ternary lithium batteries is higher, which has a higher recycling value and is convenient for recycling enterprises to obtain higher profits. Therefore, the commercial profit model for recycling waste ternary lithium batteries is basically mature.

In contrast, recycling lithium iron phosphate batteries is not so economical. The current sequential recycling price of ternary lithium batteries is 0.2-0.3 yuan/Wh, and the residual value of scrapped ternary lithium batteries is about 0.1 yuan/Wh, while lithium iron phosphate batteries are almost worthless.

Now, despite the inherent advantages of lithium iron phosphate batteries in terms of cycling and safety, ternary lithium batteries still have their unique characteristics. Neither of these two cannot coexist, but-lithium iron phosphate batteries will be used in multiple applications. Programs in electric commercial vehicles and passenger cars of A-class and A0-class and below are more sensitive to prices. This part of consumers is pursuing value; ternary lithium batteries will be more used in high-end passenger cars that focus on performance.